You can pray for ‘Help,’ but an ‘Artist’ will be crowned

The Academy instituted new and somewhat complicated voting rules for best picture this year that made many assume only five to seven films would qualify for a best picture nomination. Instead, nine films were announced in what would appear to be a competitive field, but actually isn’t. A remarkable homage to the era of golden age of the silent film in Hollywood, “The Artist” has won key honors from the director’s guild and producer’s guild as well as numerous critics’ groups prizes. The only true competitor would appear to be “The Help” after that hit won the best ensemble honor at the SAG Awards. However, like baseball, statistics don’t like in the Oscar game. “The Help” didn’t land a directing, screenwriting or editing nomination. No film has ever won best picture without landing all three, and it’s almost impossible to win without at least a directing or editing nod. If “The Help” were to pull off the win, it would be the greatest upset of all time, but it’s not going to happen. Place your money on “The Artist” all the way.

Why "The Artist" has sealed the deal for Best Picture 

This should be a short acceptance speech

If you were to have asked any Oscar expert who would win best actor five weeks ago, hands down everyone of them would have picked George Clooney for his amazing work in “The Descendants.” Oh, how wrong we all were. Beginning with his shocking win at the SAG Awards over Clooney, “The Artist’s” Jean Dujardin has become the hands-down favorite. The Frenchman even beat favorite son Gary Oldman of “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” fame at the BAFTAs. Dujardin will prove you can win Oscar without saying a word.

Jean Dujardin and Kristen Wiig cut a rug on "Saturday Night Live" 

Will Meryl Streep really lose for the 13th time in a row?

It’s not going to be lucky 13 for Meryl Streep at this year’s Oscars. The iconic actress has two statues to her credit, for “Kramer vs. Kramer” and “Sophie’s Choice,” but its been 29 years since her last win and her nomination for “The Iron Lady” is her 13th since. Streep gave arguably her best performance since 1996’s “The Bridges of Madison County” as British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in “The Iron Lady,” but she’s still going to lose to Viola Davis’ movie-carrying performance in “The Help.” Streep did win the equivalent BAFTA Award over Davis, which is a sign of significant support, but that standing ovation for Davis at the SAG Awards told you all you need to know. Davis all the way.

Is it time for Meryl Streep to win a third Oscar? 

Good things come to those legends that wait

This category was initially wide open at the beginning of awards season, but as the critics’ awards and year-end honors progressed one name was consistently announced: Christopher Plummer. The Tony and Emmy Award-winning actor, who is best known for his role in “The Sound of Music,” has been overlooked by Oscar before (1999’s “The Insider”), finally nominated (2009’s “The Last Station”), and now will be rewarded with his first Oscar at the spry young age of 82 for his subtle and heartbreaking performance in Mike Mills’ “Beginners.” The only actor with any shot of an upset is the legendary Max Von Sydow from “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” but that would be a major surprise after Plummer has swept the Globes, SAG Awards and BAFTA prizes.

Christopher Plummer goes down memory lane 

Octavia Spencer should have her acceptance speech ready

The Academy has given their seal of approval to the summer’s big box office surprise, “The Help,” by awarding the melodrama four nominations including two in this category. Fans of the film will be happy to see longtime character actress Octavia Spencer rewarded with her first Academy Award. Like Plummer, Spencer has swept the Globes, SAG Awards and, in something of a surprise, the BAFTAs. Viewers will be happy to see “Bridesmaids’” Melissa McCarthy nominated, but if anyone upsets it will be Bérénice Bejo of “The Artist.”

Melissa McCarthy calls "Bridesmaids" sequel without Kristen Wiig a terrible idea 

No Pixar means a chameleon will turn gold

Disney tried incredibly hard to convince the Academy’s animation nominating committee that the critically derided “Cars 2” was worthy of a nod, but happily they didn’t buy it. That ends a streak of four straight wins for the company in this category since “Ratatouille” in 2008. This year’s slam dunk winner will be Gore Verbinski’s unconventional and trippy tale “Rango,” which was a surprise hit for Paramount just a year ago. “Kung Fu Panda 2” and “Puss in Boots” offer some competition, but it would be major upset if “Rango” didn’t win.

Johnny Depp talks "Rango," Hunter S. Thompson, and "The Lone Ranger" 

Lubisecki finally comes to ‘Life’ at the Oscars

He’s been nominated four times previously, but the fifth nomination is going to be the charm for Emmanuel Lubezki after his beautiful work in Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life.” Two-time winner Robert Richardson has a shot with “Hugo,” but the long admired Lubezki should finally join the winner’s club.

Emmanuel Lubezki on capturing the moment in Terrence Malick's "Tree of Life" 

The smart money is on ‘Hugo’ — or is it?

Can a film find itself with 11 nominations and leave the Kodak Theater empty-handed? Well, it has happened. Both “The Turning Point” and “The Color Purple” had 11 nods and didn’t win a single statue. Last year, “True Grit” went Oscar-less after landing ten nominations. Dante Ferretti is a legend in the world of art direction and production design, and if “Hugo” is going to honored it would appear to be here, but this pundit thinks the love for “The Artist” will be true great and voters will check off their best picture pick here too. It could honestly go either way, though.

James Cameron and Martin Scorsese talk 3D and "Hugo" 

Oscar Prediction Rule #372: Always go with the frilly period costumes

If you want a safe pick in this category, you can’t go wrong with “Hugo’s” Sandy Powell. She’s a three-time winner and her work in “Hugo” is superb. You could even go with industry veteran Mark Bridges for his period pieces on “The Artist.” But before you make your pick, know that when it comes to costumes, not only does the Academy like period films, it likes frilly period films. In fact, they may be addicted to voting for them. Don’t be surprised if Lisy Christl wins over Powell and Bridges for her Shakespearan-era costumes in Roland Emmerich’s little-seen thriller, “Anonymous.”

A decade of costume-designing "Harry Potter" 

The winner is the one name you likely don’t recognize

It’s going to be a big night for Michel Hazanavicius’ silent wonder “The Artist,” and the French filmmaker will find himself winning the best director prize over established legends such s Martin Scorsese (“Hugo”), Alexander Payne (“The Descendants”), Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”), and Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”). Scorsese would seem to have a chance at landing his second statue for “Hugo,” which leads all films with 11 nominations, but when Hazanavicius won the Directors Guild of America Award and the BAFTA Award, he pretty much sealed the deal.

On Woody and Terrence, Oscar's inevitable no-shows 

Will it be ‘Paradise’ won or ‘Lost?’

With critically acclaimed documentaries such as “Project Nim” and “Senna” not making the final five this year, there really is no clear-cut favorite for best documentary feature. The smart pick would be “Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory” which was the third doc to investigate the 20-year fight to free three men imprisoned in Arkansas for the Robin Hood Hills Murders after new DNA evidence suggested they were innocent. Upset contenders include the football documentary “Undefeated” and “Hell and Back Again,” about an Afghanistan war vet’s experiences overseas and his return home. Still, “Paradise Lost 3” is the likely winner.

Oscar Guide: Best Documentary 

A weak year where the subject matters more than the film itself

It’s an extremely weak year for this category, but most Oscar observers have the race between “Saving Face,” about the recovery of Pakistani women attacked with acid, and “The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom,” about Japanese Tsunami survivors trying to rebuild their lives. The latter is by acclaimed documentarian Lucy Walker (“Waste Land”), but it’s arguably not her best work. A potential upset could come from the entertaining “God Is the Bigger Elvis,” but for now, go with “Saving Face.”

 

Cut to: ‘The Artist’ vs. ‘Hugo’

Longtime Scorsese collaborator Thelma Schoonmaker isn’t just a legend in the film world. She’s considered one of the giants in the field of film editing. If there was a Mount Rushmore of film editors, she’d be on it. And her Oscar wins for “Raging Bull,” “The Aviator,” and “The Departed” are just the tip of the iceberg of her accomplishments. As fine as Schoonmaker’s cutting in best picture nominee “Hugo” is, however, Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius should benefit from a big night for “The Artist” and take the key prize.

BFFs Brad Pitt and George Clooney hit the Oscar luncheon 

Iran should separate itself from the competition

Tensions between the West and Iran are arguably at their most serious since the Iranian Revolution in the late 70s, but through all the politicking Asghar Farhadi’s “A Separation,” has been making its way across the world, winning over audiences and critics alike. In fact, the Academy was so impressed by the drama, Farhadi found himself in the rare instance of also landing a best original screenplay nomination. This category is always tricky because only members who see all five nominees can vote for it, and many of those members tend to be retirees with strange tastes. However, as much as Agnieszka Holland’s WWII-set “In Darkness” or the familiar elements of “Monsieur Lazhar” may make them question their vote, the historical significance of “A Separation” will make it too hard to ignore.

 

This ‘Iron Lady’ will take out poor ‘Harry Potter’

Aging Meryl Streep from a woman in her 30’s to her 80’s is no easy feat. Making it look convincing is award-worthy. The fantasy work by the “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 2” crew and the transformative makeup on Glenn Close in “Albert Nobbs” is all stellar, but this category is where “The Iron Lady” will land its one and only Oscar win.

Oscar-nominated makeup artists explain how Meryl Streep became "The Iron Lady" 

‘The Artist’ will be heard

There were some truly gorgeous film scores this year, and Albert Iglesias (“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”), Howard Shore (“Hugo”), and John Williams (“The Adventures of Tintin” and “War Horse,” one of his best in years) are all truly deserving of Academy recognition. However, one composer’s work had to convey the drama of each scene with almost zero spoken dialogue or sound, and that artist was Ludovic Bource of, appropriately, “The Artist.” He succeeded masterfully with a beautiful score that will be remembered for decades and will find him an Oscar winner on Sunday night.

Howard Shore lends symphonic depth to Martin Scorsese's "Hugo" 

Whoever wins has a 50/50 chance (really)

You can argue that the Academy’s rules regarding best original song have become so stringent they have left out too many deserving nominees (many in the music industry are insulted by it at this point), but that will have to be something the organization (hopefully) deals with in the off season. For now, there only two, yes, two nominees vying for this statue: Bret McKenzie for “Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets,” or “Real in Rio” from “Rio” by Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, and Siedah Garrett. “Man or Muppet” should easily win, but with only two nominees, anything can happen.

Oscar nominee Brett McKenzie jokes Miss Piggy might pull a "Kanye" if Sergio Menes wins best original song 

'Mr. Morris Lessmore' will fly away a winner

Pixar’s Precious Moments-esque world of “La Luna” could surprise, but the incredibly imaginative and poignant “The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore" should be the winner this year.

 

This winner is going to come a "Shore"

It's rare that a noted feature film director crashes the live action short category, but that’s the case this year with Terry George. Previously nominated in the screenplay categories for both "In The Name of the Father" and "Hotel Rwanda" (which he also directed), George has landed a third nod for writing and directing "The Shore." Set in Northern Ireland, the film focuses on a man (Ciaran Hinds) who returns home after 25 years to discover if old friendships can be rekindled and at what cost. It should be lock to win, but if not, look for "Tuba Atlantic" to take the Oscar.

 

"Hugo" and "War Horse" are cutting it close (part 1)

Chances are, your Oscar pool this year will be determined by both of the too-close-to-call sound awards. Sound editing is the art of recording individual sounds and creating sounds to be used in a film. Sound mixing is when you edit them together into one mix that you hear while watching a film (confusing, yes). For editing, "Hugo" and "War Horse" are the frontrunners. We're betting the work in Steven Spielberg's "War Horse" is just too hard for the Academy to overlook.

Oscar Guide: Best Sound Editing 

'Hugo' and 'War Horse' are cutting it close (part 2)

The "Transformers" franchise has never won an Academy Award, and that won’t change this year as they lose both sound awards as well as visual effects. Instead, sound mixing is another sparring match between "Hugo" and "War Horse" and, again, we’re placing our bets on the dramatic sounds of Steven Spielberg's WWI epic.

Oscar Guide: Best Sound Mixing 

Is this where ‘The Descendants’ is rewarded?

If you are looking for upsets on Oscar Night, adapted screenplay may be your best bet. This honor has long been penciled in for Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for their adaptation of Kaui Hart Lemming’s novel, “The Descendants.” However, the Academy are also big fans of Bennett Miller’s “Moneyball,” which was close to being shelved under original director Steven Soderbergh. It was Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian’s adaptation of Michael Lewis’ non-fiction book that got the project in front of cameras — but Sorkin already won last year for “The Social Network” and members rarely go back-to-back with screenwriters in either category. Another upset contender could be the adaptation of John Le Carre’s “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” by Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan, a married writing team. O’Connor died right before production began on “Tinker,” so it may work the membership’s sympathies. (It also happens to be a remarkable adaptation.) Our pick is still “The Descendants,” but, again, this could be upset central.

George Clooney and Alexander Payne on shooting "The Descendants" 

Woody should get his fourth statue

Chances are Woody Allen won’t make the cross-country trip to attend the ceremony, but look for Woody Allen to receive his fourth Academy Award for “Midnight in Paris.” The picture isn’t just Allen’s most celebrated film since “Bullets Over Broadway,” but it’s also the biggest hit of a storied career. It would be shocking to see the Academy not reward him for it.

An epic conversation on "Bridesmaids," "The Office," and "Dumb Jock" 

These 'Apes' will 'Rise'

It's hard to believe "Transformers" is going to be overlooked for its groundbreaking visual effects for yet another year (the first "Transformers" lost in this category to "The Golden Compass" in one of the greatest upsets in Oscar history), but this year a hairy ape is going to snag that statue away from Optimus Prime. The amazing work creating the apes in "Rise of the Apes" will give the talented team at WETA digital yet another Academy Award.

Andy Serkis' emotional goodbye as Caesar in "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"